NFL Draft Betting: Why Sportsbooks Call It a ‘Necessary Evil’ and How They Lose Millions

The NFL Draft is underway, and once again, sportsbooks are bracing for another financial beating. Industry insiders describe the event as a ‘necessary evil’, a high-stakes gamble that guarantees losses rather than profits. With the draft kicking off tonight, the sentiment remains the same: bookmakers enter the fray with trepidation, knowing they have ‘zero chance to win,’ as Circa Sports Director of Operations Jeff Benson bluntly puts it.

‘Bookmakers hate the draft,’ Benson explains. ‘It’s tons of work for no gain, and we have zero chance to win. We torch five to six figures a year on it.’ The problem? In today’s hyper-connected world, sportsbooks can’t outpace sharp bettors armed with real-time information.

Thomas Gable, Director of Borgata Sportsbook, frames the issue starkly: ‘Dealing with any draft market, it’s not a matter of whether you win or lose—it’s just a question of how much you lose. The sharper customers are going to beat you to information.’ Unlike traditional sports betting, where factors like home-field advantage play a role, the draft is purely an information market. As Ben Fawkes notes, ‘Once credible information hits—like a single tweet from ESPN’s Adam Schefter—the market moves instantly, and there’s no recourse. No money comes back on the other side.’

DraftKings Sportsbook Director Johnny Avello agrees, emphasizing that the draft lacks the predictability of game-based betting. ‘It’s all about information,’ he says. ‘There’s no power ratings, no home-field advantage—just raw data, and the sharps exploit it.’

To mitigate losses, sportsbooks have adopted defensive strategies: opening markets later, slashing bet limits, and reducing the number of available wagers. Matt Freedman, a professional draft bettor since 2018, observes the shift firsthand. ‘In the 2021 draft, I had over 300 bets,’ he recalls. ‘But after the books got decimated in 2020 and 2021, they tightened up. Now, the markets are far more restricted, and it’s dried up for pros like me.’

Ed Salmons, Vice President of Risk at Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, summed it up years ago: ‘I don’t like the draft, but it’s just something we do. You have no control over it. There’s no control—it’s not like a game where mistakes happen. It’s pure information warfare.’

As the draft progresses, one thing is certain: sportsbooks will continue to lose money, but they’ll keep offering markets—because, as Benson admits, ‘it’s what the customers demand.’