Chicago-based proprietary trading firm Jump Trading has entered the prediction market sector by acquiring equity stakes in leading platforms Kalshi and Polymarket. The move represents a significant endorsement from Wall Street as these federally regulated exchanges continue to attract institutional interest.
According to sources familiar with the arrangements, Jump Trading will provide crucial liquidity services to both platforms in exchange for ownership positions. The terms differ between the two operators—the firm receives a fixed equity stake in Kalshi while its investment in Polymarket includes performance-based expansion triggers tied to liquidity provision targets.
Market makers like Jump Trading play an essential role in the emerging prediction market ecosystem by supplying liquidity across event contracts, including those with limited trading volume. This involvement helps maintain tight spreads and ensures less popular markets remain functional until broader trader participation develops.
The valuation context underscores the significance of these stakes. Kalshi reached an $11 billion valuation following a $1 billion funding round in November, while Polymarket’s worth is estimated between $9-10 billion with speculation that its next capital raise could push valuations beyond $12 billion. Even modest ownership percentages represent tens of millions of dollars in value.
This development follows a broader trend of traditional financial institutions embracing prediction markets. CME Group partners with event contract platforms operated by DraftKings and FanDuel, while Intercontinental Exchange—the NYSE’s parent company—serves as Polymarket’s largest investor. Goldman Sachs has also indicated interest in potentially applying its market-making expertise to this growing sector.
The involvement of established liquidity providers addresses concerns about prediction market operators trading against retail clients through internal market-making units. Enhanced third-party liquidity could also improve pricing competitiveness, as Kalshi’s NFL derivatives during the 2025 season often featured less favorable odds than traditional sportsbooks.
